Saturday, July 13, 2013

Homicide as a public health issue

The dirty little secret is that Homicide deaths are down in the USA, and that they are concentrated in certain politically correct subgroups.

But there are ways to counteract the toxic environment that make such deaths inevitable.


FIGURE 1. Firearm and nonfirearm homicide rates among persons aged 10–24 years — United States, 1981–2010
The figure shows firearm and non-firearm homicide rates among persons aged 10-24 years in the United States during 1981-2010. The overall homicide rate among persons aged 10-24 years varied substantially during the 30-year study period. Rates rose sharply from 1985 to 1993, increasing 83% from 8.7 per 100,000 in 1985 to 15.9 in 1993. From 1994 to 1999, the overall rate declined 41%, from 15.2 per 100,000 in 1994 to 8.9 in 1999. Alternate Text: The figure above shows firearm and non-firearm homicide rates among persons aged 10-24 years in the United States during 1981-2010. The overall homicide rate among persons aged 10-24 years varied substantially during the 30-year study period. Rates rose sharply from 1985 to 1993, increasing 83% from 8.7 per 100,000 in 1985 to 15.9 in 1993. From 1994 to 1999, the overall rate declined 41%, from 15.2 per 100,000 in 1994 to 8.9 in 1999.

FIGURE 2. Homicide rates among persons aged 10–24 years, by sex and age group — United States, 1981–2010
The figure shows homicide rates among persons aged 10-24 years, by sex and age group, in the United States during 1981-2010. Homicide rates for males remained substantially higher than rates for females during 2000-2010. When homicide rates were examined by age group, rates for persons aged 20-24 years remained highest, and rates for persons aged 10-14 years remained lowest. Alternate Text: The figure above shows homicide rates among persons aged 10-24 years, by sex and age group, in the United States during 1981-2010. Homicide rates for males remained substantially higher than rates for females during 2000-2010. When homicide rates were examined by age group, rates for persons aged 20-24 years remained highest, and rates for persons aged 10-14 years remained lowest.

FIGURE 3. Homicide rates among persons aged 10–24 years, by race/ethnicity — United States, 1990–2010
The figure shows homicide rates among persons aged 10-24 years, by race/ethnicity, in the United States during 1990-2010. During 2000-2010, rates for blacks aged 10-24 years remained the highest and rates for whites in this age group remained the lowest. Alternate Text: The figure above shows homicide rates among persons aged 10-24 years, by race/ethnicity, in the United States during 1990-2010. During 2000-2010, rates for blacks aged 10-24 years remained the highest and rates for whites in this age group remained the lowest.


graphs are from this CDC report:

Although law enforcement responses to violence and focused attention on high crime areas and perpetrators help to reduce the continuation of violence, they do not stop violence from happening in the first place. Research on youth violence demonstrates the importance of implementing primary prevention approaches that begin in childhood to disrupt the developmental pathways to serious violence in adolescence and adulthood and can be diffused across large populations (6,7). A number of primary prevention strategies are scientifically proven to reduce the risk for and occurrence of youth violence and provide critical complements to law enforcement approaches (6,7). Examples of primary prevention strategies include 1) school-based programs that build the communication skills of youths to nonviolently solve problems; 2) family approaches that help caregivers set age-appropriate rules and effectively monitor children's activities and relationships; and 3) policy, environmental, and structural approaches that enhance safety and increase opportunities for positive social interaction.

the preventive medicine approaches can be found HERE.

the irony is that as Mexican gangs spread into the heartland, the idea of "black on black" violence may soon be replaced by fear of Hispanics.

But just as it isn't PC to mention that some black neighborhoods are toxic to children, similarly it isn't PC to mention that the open borders of the US is also meaning that their narcoterrorism might spread north.

Ironically, Colombia has pretty well clamped down on their narco terrorism, so the thugs moved north, but Mexico is still in the midst of the fight.  I have to laugh when StrategyPage notes that Mexico is a failed state that hasn't fallen apart because ten percent of their population has migrated north to the USA.

In all of this, my sons, who are Hispanic, are at risk; ironically, drug users are looked down upon in Colombia, and those who got involved in growing drugs (because of poverty) often are seen as asking for bad luck...


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