Flu vaccine helps a bit, but this study is flawed

 From Instapundit:

HONESTLY, 35% DOESN’T SEEM ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE: Flu vaccine in Southern Hemisphere reduced risk of hospitalization by nearly 35%.

that article is useless. For more information check the actual CDC article LINK

The article states: 

During March 13–July 19, 2024, among a total of 111,856 SARI patients identified, 100,260 were excluded because of missing influenza RT-PCR results (70,055); ineligibility or not being in a vaccine target group (14,245); 

Italics mine....so most folk with flu like symptoms were not tested at all: meaning the study was based on a small subgroup. 

This evaluation suggests that while only one in five SARI patients had received the 2024 influenza vaccine, those who were vaccinated were at significantly lower risk for hospitalization from any influenza virus infection, including the predominant influenza A(H3N2) and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 subtypes.

huh? One in five of the small subgroup had gotten the vaccine. Were they tested in the ER or doctor's offices?

Although South American countries prioritized young children, persons with comorbidities, and older adults for vaccination to prevent influenza illness complications, the documented influenza vaccination coverage levels (21.3%) were below pre–COVID-19 norms 

 The study was from South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. But most of the data comes from Brazil. And it is about one strain of Influenza A, not Influenza B. 

These countries have a growing middle class but also slums with malnutrition and drug use. And farmers and slum dwellers and working class folk don't go to hospital unless very sick: If you are old you might just die at home. So the shot might help a bit, but this study is deeply flawed. the study does show that the flu vaccine works a bit.  

Summary: Get the shot if you are high risk. I am unsure about the data in children: I did see a few severe cases of children very very ill in the 1998 epidemic, but they were ill with secondary staph pneumonia.

I also should note that one rural clinic where I was filling in for another doc did collect data on anyone who met the fever etc. criteria: this was to alert the CDC if there might be an epidemic going around. But we didn't check the blood test to affirm it was infuenza.