bird flu conspiracy theories

 A lot of thoughtful people are suggesting there will be a major epidemic to destroy Trumpieboy, along with violence in the streets, assasination attempts, and the collapse of the stock market, and maybe even terrorist attacks blaming Russia

Well, bird flu has been out there for a decade, and now the blog legal insurrection wonders if it was made more virulent by Gain of function research:

Back in 2022, during the early days of the “bird flu” pandemic, I wondered if the H5N1 strain of bird flu was a gain-of-function creation. The reason for it was two-fold. One was the high kill ratio. While a new virus might have a high infection fatality rate, 100% fatality would only likely be achieved if the virus genetics were rearranged to target a host species.

The second reason was that the Chinese were reportedly experimenting with the H5N1 strain. Since 2019, we have all enjoyed the novel coronavirus they generated in their Wuhan labs.

While I may have been right about the gain-of-function (GOF), I was wrong about the laboratory. It turns out this frankenvirus might be a joint American and Dutch creation.

And, as with China, poor biosafety practices may have been a contributing factor.

Proximal Origin of Epidemic Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b and Spread by Migratory Waterfowl” by Nicolas Hulscher et al: LINK.

Abstract We investigate the possible laboratory origins of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13, currently affecting various animal species and causing sporadic human infections. The proximal origins may be the USDA Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL) in Athens, Georgia, and the Erasmus medical center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The first detection of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in the Netherlands in 2020 raises concerns about earlier gain-of-function research. Genetic analysis indicates genotype B3.13, emerging in 2024, and links to genotype B1.2, which originated in Georgia in January 2022 after the start of serial passage experiments with H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 in mallard ducks at SEPRL in Athens, Georgia, in April 2021. Genotype B1.2 was found in a bottlenose dolphin in March 2022 in Florida, indicating sudden new adaptations. The NP gene of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b (genotype B3.13) likely originated from avian influenza A virus in mallard ducks. Significant mutations found in recent human cases suggest possible links to serial passage experiments. However, causation has not been established, and further investigation is urgently needed to confirm these findings and to identify all H5N1 laboratory leaks that may have occurred with a focus on mallard ducks and other migratory waterfowl, which have the potential to infect a large number of poultry and livestock facilities around the world. A moratorium on GOF research including serial passage of H5N1 is indicated to prevent a man-made influenza pandemic affecting animals and humans

 

H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 serial passage experiments are currently being conducted in mallard ducks at the USDA Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL) in Athens, Georgia since April 2021 [12,13]. A new H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype (B1) was first detected in Georgia in January 2022, with gene reassortments either in PB2 and NP or in PB2, PB1 and NP. This genotype resulted in a sustained wild bird outbreak in Florida and northern Midwestern states, causing a second major wild bird outbreak in Michigan (Figure 1). Bayesian Figure 1: Spatial diffusion of US H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B1.1 and B1.2. Arrows indicate the direction of virus transition as estimated by a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection. The thickness of arrows represents the median Markov jump count/s for all the transitions between geographical location states along phylogenetic branches. The size and intensity of the red circles is proportional to the frequency of detections and number of genotypes found. The temporal formation and extinction of the red circles were superimposed during the surveillance time. The LMRCA (yellow dots) or the location (blue dots) represent the first or second highest mean Markov rewards.